A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
